Super Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: STY EGAY (DOKSURI) is forecast to likely reach its peak intensity of 250 kph (1-min average) within the next 06 to 12 hours, before weakening to below STY classification (down to Category 3 on Thursday morning) . Its forecast track will bring the Core (Eye & Eyewall) of EGAY over the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan or along the eastern part of Balintang Channel late this evening or midnight, and will start traversing the Babuyan Island Group early tomorrow morning. At approximately 2 AM tomorrow, the eye is likely to make landfall over Camiguin Island of Babuyan Group, and will be passing over or very close to Calayan Island around 8 AM tomorrow. By 2 PM tomorrow, the core will start to move away from the Babuyan Group, passing across the western part of Bashi Channel, and will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning (Jul 27). 

The presence of STY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern edge of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.3°N 124.9°E)
• Distance 1:  270 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  320 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  510 km northeast of Metro Manila

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands on Wednesday morning (Jul 26), between 2 to 8 AM ~ with Very High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan Valley – Beginning Today until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tonight until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan & Babuyan-Batanes Island Group – beginning this Afternoon/Evening.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens just below Super Typhoon threshold as it turns WNW, traversing the Babuyan Island Group…about 60 km SE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM Jul 26: 19.0°N 121.9°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it turns NNW towards Fujian Province, Southern China…about 170 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 27: 20.8°N 120.2°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Fujian Province…weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon while maintaining its NNW track…about 30 km SE of Xiamen, China [2AM Jul 28: 24.3°N 118.3°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,055 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,060 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  260 km outward from the center.