Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is forecast to continue its RI and could reach or break the Super Typhoon threshold of 240 kph (1-min avg) within the next 12 to 24 hours – as it moves over warm oceanic heat content and very favorable upper-level atmospheric environment. Its forecast track will turn more towards the WNW, and will enter the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan on Tuesday evening (July 25), and traverse the Babuyan Group of Islands by early or mid-morning of Wednesday (July 26).

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5°N 126.4°E)
• Distance 1:  405 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 2:  470 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  585 km east of Quezon City, NCR

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands on Wednesday morning (Jul 26), between 4 to 10 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Catanduanes & Northeastern Camarines Sur (Partido District) – Today.
• Cagayan Valley – Beginning Tuesday until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tuesday Evening until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan & Babuyan Group of Islands – beginning Tuesday Afternoon.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens to Near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) as it turns WNW, approaching the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 225 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [8AM Jul 25: 17.9°N 124.3°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of the Balintang Channel, traversing Calayan Island (Babuyan Group), weakens slightly as it turns NW towards the western part of Bashi Channel…about 25 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM Jul 26: 19.3°N 121.7°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• THURSDAY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while turning NNW, weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon…about 165 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 27: 21.3°N 119.6°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (975 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (880 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  215 km outward from the center.