Tropical Storm AURING (DUJUAN) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TS AURING (DUJUAN) is forecast to move slowly westward across the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 09 km/hr. This cyclone is expected to continue intensifying through Saturday morning  (Feb 20).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-central part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 7.2°N 131.6°E)
• Distance 1: 591 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 635 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 678 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur

• Along Surigao Del Sur, between 8 to 10 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50%.

• CARAGA & DAVAO REGION – beginning Saturday Afternoon (Feb 20).
• VISAYAS – beginning Sunday (Feb 21).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further while moving slowly Westward across the South Philippine Sea…about 404 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Feb 20: 7.2°N 129.9°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it turns WNW across the South Philippine Sea, closer to the coastal areas of Surigao Del Sur…about 167 km E of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 21: 8.1°N 127.8°E @ 85 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal TS as it traverses Central & Western Visayas. Just along the Southern Tip of Guimaras…about 36 km S of Iloilo City, Iloilo  [2AM Feb 22: 10.4°N 122.5°E @ 65 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (695 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center