Tropical Storm JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: TS JULIAN is expected to gradually shift northwest to west-northwest and accelerate slightly over the next two days. It may rapidly intensify into a Category 2 or 3 typhoon, with winds potentially reaching 195 km/h by early Tuesday morning (October 1). Its core (eye and eyewall) is projected to pass over or very close to Basco late tomorrow afternoon. The storm’s western and southern rainbands will continue to bring cloudy skies, occasional rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions, as well as the northern parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), from today through Tuesday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Entering the waters of the East Balintang Channel (near 18.7°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1:  260 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  300 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3:  315 km east of Aparri, Cagayan

• Over Batanes Group between 2 to 8 PM  Sept 30 (Monday)~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes, Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga, Apayao ~ beginning Tomorrow through Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ beginning late tonight through Monday (Sept 30).

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating slightly WNW closer to Batanes Group of Islands, enters the southern part of the Bashi Channel as a Category 1 Typhoon…about 120 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 30: 19.9°N 123.0°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying rapidly, becomes a Category 2 Typhoon as its core passes over or very close to Batan Island…about 10 km SE of Basco, Batanes  [2PM Sept 30: 20.4°N 122.1°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon while its core is over the western part of the Bashi Channel…about 80 km WSW of Ibayat, Batanes  [2AM Oct 01: 20.6°N 121.1°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns north and accelerates over the southern coast of Taiwan, weakens slightly due to some land interaction…about 75 km S of Taitung, Taiwan  [2AM Oct 02: 22.1°N 121.0°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (655 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (880 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center.