Tropical Storm JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: TS JULIAN is expected to gradually shift west-northwest to northwest over the next two days and may rapidly intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon, with winds reaching 165 km/h. Its core is projected to approach the coastal waters of Batanes by Monday afternoon (Sept 30). The storm’s western and southern rainbands will bring cloudy skies, occasional rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions, including the northern parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), from tonight through Monday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the North Philippine Sea (near 18.5°N 125.4°E)
• Distance 1:  340 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  360 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3:  400 km east of Aparri, Cagayan

• None

• Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes, Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga, Apayao ~ beginning Tomorrow through Monday (Sept 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moving slowly on a WNW to NW track as it becomes a Severe Tropical Storm, entering the eastern part of the Balintang Channel…about 215 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Sept 29: 19.1°N 124.1°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying rapidly, becomes a Category 2 Typhoon as it turns NNW slowly, approaching the coastal waters of the Batanes…about 100 km ESE of Basco, Batanes  [2PM Sept 30: 20.0°N 122.8°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon while passing very close to Itbayat, Batanes…about 50 km ENE of Ibayat, Batanes  [2PM Oct 01: 20.9°N 122.3°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  997 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (825 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (780 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.