Typhoon JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon JULIAN is expected to maintain its west-northwest track and speed over the next 12 to 36 hours as it moves along the western coastal waters of Batanes. It may rapidly intensify into a Category 4 typhoon, with winds potentially reaching 215 km/h later tonight. By Tuesday evening (Oct 1), Julian is forecast to take a sharp northerly turn toward southern Taiwan. The storm’s western and southern rainbands will continue to bring cloudy skies, occasional rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions, as well as northern parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), from today through Tuesday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Entering the coastal waters of the Batanes Group of Islands (near 19.8°N 122.7°E)
• Distance 1:  105 km southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  140 km southeast of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3:  195 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

• Over Batanes Group between 6 to 10 AM  Today ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes, Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga, Apayao ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Today.

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• MONDAY MORNING: The core will be along the coastal waters of Sabtang & Batan Islands, passing over or very close to these islands, strengthens into a Category 3 typhoon…about 30 km SSW of Basco, Batanes [8AM Sept 30: 20.2°N 121.9°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• MONDAY EVENING: Still intensifying, reaching Category 4 as it moves slowly WNW away from the Batanes Group of Islands  [8PM Sept 30: 20.5°N 121.2°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Category 3 typhoon as it turns northward, approaching the coast of Southern Taiwan and preparing to make landfall…about 115 km S of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [8PM Oct 01: 21.6°N 120.4°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Moving across Central Taiwan, weakens rapidly into a Category 2 typhoon as it accelerates NNE to NE…about 60 km ESE of Taichung City, Taiwan  [8PM Oct 02: 23.9°N 121.2°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 525 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  961 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (945 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (880 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  120 km outward from the center.