Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to slightly weaken after crossing Samar Island, and will maintain its northwestward track at an accelerated forward speed of 22 km/hr. The storm will be along the southern part of Ragay Gulf tonight passing very close to Ticao and Burias Islands.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression (TD) 19W has intensified slightly as it drifts northward. At 11 PM today, it was located about 1,758 km East of Central Luzon (14.9N 137.9E), with 1-min sustained winds of 55 kph and was moving NNW @ 13 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Taiwan within the next 5 days.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western portion of Llorente, Eastern Samar (near 11.5°N 125.5°E)
• Distance 1: 57 km north-northwest of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2: 233 km east-southeast of Masbate, Masbate
• Distance 3: 65 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte

• Along Southern Sorsogon-Ticao Island-Eastern Masbate  Area – tomorrow afternoon, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Eastern Visayas – Today.
• Bicol Region – Later Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EVENING: Maintain its STS strength while in the vicinity of Ticao Island…about 49 km N of Masbate City, Masbate [8PM Sept 07: 12.8°N 123.6°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
  
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly while making landfall over Northern Quezon, turns WNW-ward…about 65 km E of Metro Manila [8PM Sept 08: 14.5°N 121.6°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• THURSDAY EVENING: Accelerates WNW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from the country as it weakens into a minimal TS…about 315 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8PM Sept 09: 16.5°N 117.4°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (470 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.