Tropical Depression JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TD JENNY is forecast to move on a north-northwest direction across the North Philippine Sea between Sunday to Monday (Oct 1-2) while intensifying into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Monday morning. During this outlook, JENNY will not yet affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the presence of TD JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Western Mindanao beginning today through early next week. It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.7°N 131.7°E)
• Distance 1:  830 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  1,035 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,150 km east of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving NNW across the southern portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 755 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM Oct 01: 17.7°N 130.1°E @ 75-95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the North Philippine Sea, starts to move on a WNW track…about 720 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Oct 02: 19.7°N 128.9°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY MORNING: Rapidly intensifies into a Typhoon (Cat 1) as it accelerates westward in the general direction of Batanes Group…about 470 km E of Basco, Batanes [8AM Oct 03: 20.3°N 126.5°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  999 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (635 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.