TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) MAYMAY STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Wednesday, 12 October 2022
Next update: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Thursday, 13 October 2022
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) MAYMAY continues to fight for survival as its circulation remains disorganized and quasi-stationary, with most of its thick northwestern rain-cloud convection fluctuating over Cagayan Valley.  Occasional light to moderate to at times heavy rains will prevail across the region with high risk of flooding and landslides.

This disturbance together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to affect the coastal waters of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along the Batanes and Babuyan Group. Wind gusts of up to 65 kph with rough seas will prevail, making it dangerous to sea crafts and fishing vessels. For updates on PAGASA Wind Signals see graphic at the bottom of this StormWatch.

Where is LPA MAYMAY? As of 11:00 AM PhT Today, October 12…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.6°N 124.0°E)
  • Distance 1: 211 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
  • Distance 2: 284 km north of Pandan, Catanduanes
  • Distance 3: 176  km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 09 kph, across the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • Indirect effects due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring rainy & windy weather along the coastal waters of Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Group (with winds of 30-65 kph). The seas around these areas particularly along the Balintang and Bashi Channels or over Luzon Strait will be rough and dangerous to sea crafts and fishing vessels. 
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) continue to show this disturbance dissipating near the coastal waters of Aurora within the next 12 to 24 hours.
  • This system will be closely monitored for any abrupt changes that may happen within the circulation.
This StormWatch is valid for the next 24 hours.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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