Typhoon ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 08

24-hr Outlook: TY ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn west-northwestward with an increased forward speed of 25 km/hr, and could reach Category 2 strength prior in making landfall over Polillo Island & Northern Quezon later tonight. The CORE (Eye + Eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Polillo Island Group on or before midnight tonight, and will make another landfall over Northern Quezon via General Nakar during the early hours of Thursday. Between 2 to 8 AM Thursday, the CORE will cross Central Luzon, passing along the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales. It will then emerge over the coastal areas of Zambales before noontime Thursday.

• Location of Center:  Along the Coastal Waters of Calaguas Island and Siruma (Camarines Sur)
• Coordinates: 14.4°N lat  123.2°E lon
• Distance 1: 43 km northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte
• Distance 2: 46 km north-northwest of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 87 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 4: 231 km east of Metro Manila

• Landfall: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 10 to 11 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2: Along Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border, between 1 to 2 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – Today.
• REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – beginning Tonight through Thursday (Nov 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• CAMARINES NORTE, REST OF CAMARINES SUR (except Rinconada), CATANDUANES – Today.
• NORTHERN QUEZON & SOUTHERN AURORA – beginning Tonight.
• NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, SOUTHERN PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, & METRO MANILA – beginning Early Thursday Morning (Nov 12).

• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea, approaching Scarborough Shoal, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 184 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 12: 15.5°N 118.4°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while continuing moving west towards the South China Sea, re-intensifies …about 625 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 13: 15.4°N 114.2°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (935 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center