Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 08

*This tropical cyclone is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow early morning, November 01, along Catanduanes and Camarines Sur  with a high strike probability of 90-95%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further as it moves  west-southwest to westward with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes by early tomorrow morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur, passing over North-Central Camarines Sur between 5 to 8 AM, and across Bondoc Peninsula before 12 noon. At around 2 to 6 PM tomorrow, the core will be crossing Batangas Province and shall emerge over Verde Island Passage tomorrow evening. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the mid-western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.4°N 127.0°E)
• Distance 1: 302 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 388 km east-northeast of Sagñay, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 420 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1: Over Catanduanes, between 2 to 3 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.
• Landfall 2: Over Sagñay, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 5 to 6 AM tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 01) – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

• Bicol Region – beginning late tonight or early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
• CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)
• Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning Sunday morning or afternoon (Nov 01)

• Coastal Areas, Inland Lakes, & Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight through tomorrow (Sunday Nov 01).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Batangas Coastline…weakens to a Category 4 Super Typhoon…about 30 km SSW of Lucena City, Quezon [2PM Nov 01: 13.7°N 121.5°E @ 240 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH 
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while over the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon…about 487 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Nov 02: 15.0°N 115.6°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (630 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center