Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TS PAENG is expected to move west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea, with a faster forward speed of 25 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today. It will make landfall or pass very close to Catanduanes by early tomorrow morning as it nears Typhoon strength.

The storm’s rainbands and trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring windy conditions (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming wet and rainy with severe thunderstorms & squally conditions across Bicol Region, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, & Mindanao today.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.0°N 128.7°E)
• Distance 1:  445 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 520 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 625 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1:  Over Northern Catanduanes on Saturday morning (Oct 29), between 1 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2:  Over Polillo Island Group on late Saturday afternoon (Oct 29), between 5 to 6 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 3:  Over Northern Quezon on Saturday evening (Oct 29), between 7 to 9 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region & Visayas ~ Today.
• Rest of Luzon ~ Beginning tonight or early Saturday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into an STS as it makes landfall over Northern Catanduanes, approaching Partido District, Camarines Sur…about 15 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 29: 14.0°N 124.3°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it passes along the coastal waters of Camarines Norte, prepares to make landfall over Southern Polillo and later near Infanta, Quezon…about 69 km WNW of Daet, Camarines Norte [2PM Oct 29: 14.4°N 122.4°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Tarlac, weakens into an STS while while traversing the landmass of Central Luzon on NW track…about 8 km S of Tarlac City, Tarlac [2AM Oct 30: 15.4°N 120.6°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea after exiting Zambales, weakens slightly while moving NW…about 163 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 31: 16.5°N 118.5°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 525 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,185 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (930 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —