Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 11

24-hr Outlook: The core of TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to continue re-intensifying and will pass very close to the north of Kalayaan Islands this afternoon (between 1 to 3 PM) while moving west-northwestward at a speed of 24 kph. Odette will then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before 12 noon today, and will be approaching the coastal waters of Vietnam tomorrow.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 10.9°N 116.6°E)
• Distance 1: 298 km west-northwest of Roxas, Palawan
• Distance 2: 261 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan
• Distance 3: 254 km east of Kalayaan Island Group, Palawan

• None

• Kalayaan Islands – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Kalayaan Islands – Today.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Western Palawan & the Kalayaan Islands.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Kalayaan Island Group, after exiting PAR…continues to re-intensify…about 40 km NNE of Kalayaan Islands, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.4°N 114.4°E @ 205 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam, starts to move northwestward while weakening into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 774 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 12.3°N 112.1°E @ 175 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as recurves NNE-ward while along the coastal waters of Central Vietnam…about 801 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Dec 20: 16.0°N 110.6°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 955 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,015 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (840 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km outward from the center