Tropical Storm NENENG (NESAT) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS NENENG is forecast to rapidly intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)  by tomorrow early morning, moving west across the northern coastal waters of Cagayan & Ilocos Norte, with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr. Its western & southern rainbands will continue to spread across Northern Luzon, where flood-threatening rainfall and gusty winds of up to 85 km/hr will be felt throughout Sunday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern portion of Balintang Channel (near 18.6°N 123.5°E)
• Distance 1:  142 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 198 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 229 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None. However, a possible minor landfalls are likely along the Babuyan Group of Islands or a major landfall over Santa Ana, Cagayan tomorrow, between 12 AM to 2 PM with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan Valley including Batanes & Babuyan Group, Ilocos Provinces, Northern Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) ~ Today through Sunday (Oct 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Babuyan Island Group, & Ilocos Provinces.

+Waves of 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into an STS while moving westward, passing along the northern coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 25 km N of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Oct 16: 18.7°N 122.2°E @ 95 kph]. It will then pass over Fuga Island on or before noon tomorrow.  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further while passing along the northern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte, turns WNW…about 57 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 16: 19.0°N 120.5°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon while outside PAR, turns WSW over the South China Sea in response to a new surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 381 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 17: 19.2°N 117.4°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further will moving WSW across the South China Sea…about 479 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 18: 18.1°N 114.4°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (575 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —