Tropical Depression KABAYAN (JELAWAT) Advisory No. 04

36-hr Outlook: TD KABAYAN is forecast to accelerate westward and will become a remnant low upon its passage over the Zamboanga Peninsula early tomorrow morning. Its remnants will emerge over the Sulu Sea before passing over the southernmost part of Palawan tomorrow evening.  By early Wednesday morning, it will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, TD KABAYAN’s rain circulation will still bring widespread rainfall across Visayas and Mindanao tonight, and will spread across Sulu Archipelago and Palawan tomorrow, Tuesday.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by this system.  Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) has started to weaken, just affecting Northern Luzon incl. Batanes-Babuyan Group.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Town of Arakan, North Cotabato (near 7.3°N 125.1°E)
• Distance 1:  30 km north of Kidapawan City, North Cotabato
• Distance 2:  65 km south of Valencia City, Bukidnon
• Distance 3:  120 km southeast of Marawi City, Lanao del Sur

• None.

• Whole of Mindanao, Leyte Provinces, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Camiguin, Siquijor ~ Tonight.
• Sulu Archipelago & Palawan ~ beginning Tonight through Tomorrow (Tue Dec 19).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Remnant Low as it emerges over the west coast of Zamboanga…about 95 km N of Lamitan City, Basilan [2AM Dec 19: 7.5°N 122.0°E @ 35-50 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further moving across Sulu Sea, approaching Southern Palawan…about 210 km S of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 8.1°N 118.7°E @ 30-45 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1005 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (645 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.