Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 07

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to maintain its strength and will move northwestward at an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr…making landfall over Batangas this morning. In the afternoon, the storm will move across Cavite and passing across Corregidor Island, and will be in the vicinity of Bataan early tonight. By early morning tomorrow, JOLINA will be along the vicinity of Subic Bay, emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) is undergoing a Rapid Intensification phase and could become a Super Typhoon today.  At 5AM today, the eye was located about 1,166 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.1N 132.9E), with 1-min sustained winds of 230 kph with higher gusts. This system is not a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Batanes-Taiwan Area within the next 3-4 days. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the northwest coast of Marinduque (near 13.4°N 121.8°E)
• Distance 1: 8 km west of Boac, Marinduque
• Distance 2: 89 km east-southeast of Batangas City, Batangas
• Distance 3: 149 km southeast of Metro Manila

• Over Batangas – between 8 to 10 AM this morning, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Mindoro, Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Southern part of Metro Manila, Bataan – Today.

• Batangas

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TS as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, very near Subic Bay…about 30 km WNW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Sept 09: 14.9°N 120.0°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies into an STS as it is about to exit PAR…heading west-northwest towards Hainan, China…about 353 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 10: 16.0N 117.0°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (315 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km outward from the center