Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to intensify further into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tomorrow and will move northwestward across Eastern & Northern Samar at a forward speed of 14 km/hr. Forecast wind speeds by tomorrow morning will be at 110 km/hr (1-min avg) or even higher if the rapid intensification phase of JOLINA continues.

Meanwhile, another LPA 94W located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has intensified into Tropical Depression (TD) 19W. At 5 PM today, it was located about 1,557 km East of Southern Luzon (14.3N 138.1E), with 1-min sustained winds of 45 kph and was moving North @ 11 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Taiwan within the next 5 days.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwesternmost portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.0°N 126.6°E)
• Distance 1: 96 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
• Distance 2: 141 km north-northeast of Siargao Island
• Distance 3: 181 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte

• Along Eastern Samar – between late tonight or early tomorrow morning (11 PM to 3 AM).

• Eastern Visayas – tonight.
• Bicol Region – beginning tomorrow (Sept 07).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into an STS as it traverses Northern Samar, emerges over the San Bernardino Strait…about 68 km SE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [2PM Sept 07: 12.6°N 124.5°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
  
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a minimal Typhoon while in the vicinity of Camarines Norte…about 5 km E of Daet, Camarines Norte [2PM Sept 08: 14.1°N 123.0°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Over Western Pangasinan, after crossing Central Luzon…weakens into an STS…about 47 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 09: 16.1°N 119.9°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (300 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None