Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 11

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the next couple of hours, as it continue to weaken across the South China Sea due to the after-effects of Taiwan’s rugged terrain on the circulation of the typhoon, increasing upper-level winds and decreasing Oceanic Heat Content (OHC).  On Saturday morning (Oct 7), JENNY will be downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it starts to head southwest in response to a strengthening Northeasterly Surface Windflow. 

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Outer Rainbands and the Southwesterly Surface Windflow (Weak Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Northern Luzon and the western sections of Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR, Mindoro, & Calamian Group today. It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the southwestern coastal area of Pingtung County, Taiwan (near 22.0°N 120.4°E)
• Distance 1:  70 km south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
• Distance 2:  200 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3:  830 km north of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon, while moving WNW across the South China Sea…about 180 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Oct 06: 22.3°N 118.6°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens gradually into a minimal Typhoon (Cat 1)…moving slowly WNW approaching the coastal waters of Southern China (Eastern Guangdong)…about 240 km SSW of Xiamen, China [8AM Oct 07: 22.6°N 116.9°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  945 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (630 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (930 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  140 km outward from the center.