Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 06

48-hr Outlook: There is no change in the forecast track, TY JENNY will pass approx. 150-200 km north of Batanes Group on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 4). Its estimated wind speed is expected to remain at 205 kph (Cat 3) for the next 12 hours, before it starts to weaken, down to 165 kph (Cat 2) due to dry-air entrainment and increasing upper-level winds along the path of the typhoon. During this outlook, the western & southern inner rainbands of JENNY will be spreading across the Batanes Group of Islands where Tropical Storm-Force Winds of 75-100 kph will be felt  throughout Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, Western & Southern Mindanao today through Thursday (Oct 05). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.1°N 125.6°E)
• Distance 1:  380 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  405 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  780 km northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ beginning Wednesday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly while turning WNW across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel in Luzon Strait…about 240 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [8PM Oct 03: 21.3°N 124.1°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over the southern tip of Taiwan, as it turns westward…weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 60 km S of Taitung, Taiwan [8PM Oct 04: 22.2°N 121.1°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EVENING: Outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon while over the southern edge of Taiwan Strait…about 195 km West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8PM Oct 05: 22.6°N 118.4°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 800 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  945 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (830 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  195 km outward from the center.