Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 10

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to become a Super Typhoon while moving north-northwest within the next 12 to 24 hours, completing its counterclockwise loop over the Philippine Sea.  On Wednesday, Goring is forecast to turn on a sharp NW to WNW passing  over or very close to Batanes Group of Islands with a slight decrease in its wind intensity.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the northern edge of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 17.6°N 124.1°E)
• Distance 1:  190 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  230 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  470 km northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Super Typhoon as it moves NNW across the Philippine Sea, completing its counterclockwise loop…about 150 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Aug 29: 19.1°N 123.4°E @ 240-300 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating towards the NW to WNW after moving across Luzon Strait (passing over or very close to Batanes ~ approx. 8 in the morning). Weakens just below Super Typhoon classification…about 80 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Aug 30: 20.4°N 121.2°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon, as it tracks outside of the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 205 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 31: 21.4°N 118.8°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (480 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  60 km outward from the center.