Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 07

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is expected to resume its northwesterly track, and pass along Dalupiri Island in the next couple hours. Then, later this afternoon, the core will moving just along the western coastal waters of Calayan Island, before heading towards the western portion of the Bashi Channel later tonight.  TY EGAY is forecast to weaken further, and will be downgraded to a Category 3 typhoon as it exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Jul 27).  By early Friday morning (Jul 28), EGAY will be approaching the coastal areas of Fujian Province in Southern China, rapidly weakening thereafter as it makes landfall. 

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through tomorrow (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Fuga Island, Cagayan (near 18.8°N 121.4°E)
• Distance 1:  55 km north-northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  60 km south of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  110 km northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• Over Western Portion of Babuyan Group of Islands this morning ~ with Very High Strike Probability of 100%.

• Cagayan Valley (incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group) – Ongoing until Tomorrow.
• Northern Luzon – Ongoing until Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan including Babuyan-Batanes Island Group, Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, & Apayao – Ongoing until Tonight.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the western part of the Bashi Channel, about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves NW to NNW…about 205 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 27: 20.5°N 119.9°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the coastal waters of Southern China as it prepares to make landfall over Fujian Province…weakens rapidly into a Category 1 Typhoon, accelerating NNW…about 90 km SSE of Xiamen, China [2AM Jul 28: 23.7°N 118.4°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 936 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,050 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,210 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  215 km outward from the center.