Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 03

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is forecast to continue its RI and could reach or break the Super Typhoon threshold of 240 kph (1-min avg) within the next 06 to 24 hours. Its forecast track will resume back towards the WNW, and will enter the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan on Tuesday evening (July 25), and traverse the Babuyan Group of Islands by Wednesday morning (July 26).

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.2°N 126.1°E)
• Distance 1:  425 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 2:  430 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  570 km east-northeast of Quezon City, NCR

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands on Wednesday morning (Jul 26), between 2AM to 2 PM ~ with Very High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Catanduanes & Northeastern Camarines Sur (Partido District) – Today.
• Cagayan Valley – Beginning Tuesday until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tuesday Evening until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan & Babuyan Group of Islands – beginning Tuesday Afternoon.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to Near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) as it turns WNW, approaching the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 170 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Jul 25: 18.1°N 123.7°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Balintang Channel, traversing Calayan Island (Babuyan Group), weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it turns NW towards the western part of Bashi Channel…about 55 km N of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2PM Jul 26: 19.8°N 121.4°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while turning NNW along the coastal waters of Kaohsiung, Taiwan… weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon…about 75 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 27: 22.5°N 119.6°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 940 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,095 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,060 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  240 km outward from the center.