Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TD AGATON is forecast to drift very slowly, WNW @ 3 kph and will be in the vicinity of Daanbantayan, Cebu early tomorrow morning. The depression is expected to weaken further later today.

Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS has maintained its strength while moving closer to the Philippine Sea, expected to brieflyenter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning (Apr 12). However, upon its entrance, STS MALAKAS is forecast to recurve northward and exit PAR on Wednesday (Apr 13) as it pulls behind the soon-to-be remants of TD Agaton (Megi).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Ormoc City, Leyte (near 11.0°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1: 5 km south-southwest of Ormoc City, Leyte
• Distance 2: 49 km southwest of Tacloban City, Leyte
• Distance 3: 103 km northeast of Mandaue City, Cebu

• Over Daanbantayan, Cebu – Early Tomorrow Morning, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Eastern & Central Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further while making landfall over Daanbantayan, Cebu,  moving WNW slowly…about 68 km NE of Escalante City, Negros Occidental [2AM Apr 12: 11.2°N 124.0°E @ 45 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a remnant LPA while reversing its track Eastward (due to the pull from the passing STS Malakas located to the east). Will pass over Guiuan, Eastern Samar while emerging back over the Philippine Sea…about 30 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Apr 13: 11.0°N 126.0°E @ 35 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (685 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (<125 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —