Tropical Storm AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS AGATON is forecast to drift slowly, NW to WNW @ 6 kph and will make landfall along Tacloban Area early tomorrow morning, weakening into a Tropical Depression as it will again stall over the area into the afternoon.

Meanwhile, a much larger and stronger – Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS has been racing towards the west-northwest and could become a Typhoon by tomorrow.  This cyclone is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday (Apr 12) and will start assimilating TS AGATON (MEGI) before recurving towards the North.  Therefore, STS MALAKAS is not a threat to any part of the country.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Eastern Leyte (near 10.7°N 125.3°E)
• Distance 1: 49 km east of Baybay City, Leyte
• Distance 2: 72 km south-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
• Distance 3: 83 km east-southeast of Ormoc City, Leyte

• Along the Northern Part of Leyte – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Eastern & Central Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while over Northern Leyte…about 45 km NW of Ormoc City, Leyte [2PM Apr 11: 11.3°N 124.3°E @ 45 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Decays into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while moving slowly eastward across Northern Leyte…about 7 km NE of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM Apr 12: 11.3°N 125.0°E @ 35 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates rapidly East to ENE-ward across the Philippine Sea…completely assimilated into the southern circulation of STS MALAKAS…about 404 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Apr 13: 11.5°N 129.4°E @ 20 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (520 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (<125 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —