Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to re-intensify slightly tonight upon its emergence over the Sibuyan Sea and will turn northwestward at a forward speed of 20 km/hr. By tomorrow morning, JOLINA will pass very close to Eastern Marinduque as it approaches the coastal areas of Southern Quezon.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm (TS) CHANTHU has gained more strength while turning WNW closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). At 11 AM today, it was located about 1,575 km East of Central Luzon (15.7N 136.3E), with 1-min sustained winds of 95 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Batanes-Taiwan within the next 5 days. It is then forecast to enter PAR on Wednesday morning (Sept 08).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Eastern Masbate (near 12.2°N 123.7°E)
• Distance 1: 24 km southeast of Masbate City, Masbate
• Distance 2: 161 km east-southeast of Romblon
• Distance 3: 164 km south-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Northern Masbate – Occurring, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Southern Bicol Region – Today.
• Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Tomorrow (Sept 08).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Ticao Island & Masbate – Today.
• Eastern Romblon  – Tonight.
• Western Bondoc Peninsula & Marinduque – Tomorrow morning.

• Coastal Areas of Masbate, Romblon, Burias & Ticao Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over Tayabas Bay, near the east coast of Marinduque…approaches the coastal areas of Southern Quezon…about 33 km NE of Boac, Marinduque [8AM Sept 08: 13.6°N 122.1°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  
• THURSDAY MORNING: Along the west coast of Zambales…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 41 km N of Iba, Zambales [8AM Sept 09: 15.7°N 119.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies into an STS as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 528 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 10: 16.6°N 115.4°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (625 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 25 km outward from the center.