Tropical Depression CRISING Advisory No. 03

This depression will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms and gusty winds across Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao particularly Davao Region and portions of Caraga Region today.

24-hr Outlook: TD CRISING is forecast to move west-northwestward across Mindanao at a forward speed of 18 km/hr and will continue losing strength. It will traverse the provinces of Davao De Oro, Davao Del Norte, Bukidnon, the northern part of Lanao Provinces, Misamis Occidental, & the northern tip of Zamboanga Del Norte today – between this early morning until the evening.  There is a possibility that Crising may be downgraded into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) earlier than forecasted – this is due to the rugged, mountainous terrains of Mindanao. 

• Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Davao Oriental (near 7.5°N 126.4°E)
• Distance 1: 64 km north-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 110 km east-northeast of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
• Distance 3: 141 km east-southeast of Valencia City, Bukidnon

• N/A (System’s over land)

• Portions of Eastern, Central & Northern Mindanao – today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens further as it emerges off the coastal area of Dipolog City while moving WNW…about 33 km WNW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte [8PM May 14: 8.7°N 123.1°E @ 45 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan…just a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)…about 86 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM May 15: 10.0°N 118.0°E @ 35 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Small/Midget (220 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None