Tropical Storm KABAYAN (JELAWAT) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TS KABAYAN is forecast to traverse the southern part of Surigao Del Sur-Agusan Del Sur-Northern Bukidnon early tomorrow morning, and will be very near Cagayan De Oro around 8 AM tomorrow.  Then, tomorrow afternoon, KABAYAN will be passing across the northern parts of Misamis Occidental & Zamboanga Del Norte.  During its passage over Southern Caraga and Northern Mindanao, the storm is expected to weaken into a TD due to land interaction.  It will therefore move on a generally WNW to Westerly track at a speed of 25 kph.

Meanwhile, TS KABAYAN’s circulation will bring moderate to heavy rainfall across Visayas and Mindanao today and tomorrow.  It will be more intense along Caraga, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Del Norte, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Guimaras, & Southern Panay.  Meanwhile, the storm will also enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and the Shear Line across Eastern Luzon and the Bicol Region today and tomorrow.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the South Philippine Sea (near 7.4°N 129.6°E)
• Distance 1:  375 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 2:  375 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 3:  560 km east-southeast of Cagayan De Oro City

• Along Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by early tomorrow morning (Dec 18), between 12 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 80-90%.

• Rest of Visayas, Davao Region, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula ~ beginning Today through Tomorrow (Mon, Dec 18).
• Sulu Archipelago & Palawan ~ beginning Tomorrow (Mon, Dec 18) through Tuesday (Dec 19).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Cagayan De Oro as it weakens into a TD while traversing Northern Mindanao on a WNW track…about 40 km E of Cagayan De Oro [8AM Dec 18: 8.5°N 125.0°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY MORNING: Along the west coast of Central Palawan, weakens further…about 60 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 19: 9.7°N 118.2°E @ 45-65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (715 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (390 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.