Tropical Disturbance (LPA) {Ex-TD 17W} StormWatch No. 01

Tropical Depression (TD) 17W which developed yesterday outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) south of Yap Island has weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA).  However, this LPA could still regenerate back into a Tropical Cyclone as it enters the PAR and tracks northwest across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea within the next 3 to 5 days.

• Location of Eye/Center: Over Western Micronesia (near 5.3°N 140.2°E)
• Distance 1: 520 km south-southeast of Colonia, Yap (FSM)
• Distance 2: 575 km east of PAR
• Distance 3: 1,555 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental

• The Global Typhoon Models continues to show uncertainty on its track during the Day 4 & 5 Forecasts (Nov 18-19) – with a potential landfall over or near Guiuan, Eastern Samar on Sunday morning (Nov 19). The forecast probability remains LOW @ less than 35%.
• This LPA will be closely monitored for possible regeneration into a Tropical Cyclone due to increasing Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) along its forecast track.
• This system is likely to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (#Amihan) together with a Shear Line and bring scattered to occasional rain showers & thunderstorms across the eastern sections of Luzon, Bicol Region, & the Visayas beginning this weekend through early next week.  The threat of  flooding and landslides are likely as the system moves closer.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.