Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 12

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to strengthen further within the next 24 hours, likely exceeding Super Typhoon threshold, with a possibility of reaching Category 5 classification. It is then expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning (Aug 31).

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 19.1°N 122.9°E)
• Distance 1:  105 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  150 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  540 km north-northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• Northern Cagayan, Northern Ilocos Norte, Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Tonight until Tomorrow Morning (Aug 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Batanes and the Rest of the Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Tonight until Tomorrow Morning (Aug 30).

• Onshore and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to leave the Babuyan Islands after traversing the Luzon Strait, about to exit PAR while moving WNW-ward…about 140 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Aug 30: 20.3°N 120.6°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Tracking over the northern part of the South China Sea, Outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it heads toward Southern China…about 270 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 31: 21.5°N 118.0°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon, as it bears down the coastal waters of Southern China, turns west towards Hong Kong…about 255 km East of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 01: 22.3°N 116.6°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (480 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  95 km outward from the center.