Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 10

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will be outside Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today, as it tries to re-intensify while over the South China Sea.  The core of EGAY is forecast to make landfall over Fujian Province on Friday morning (Jul 28) with estimated 1-min. wind speeds of 165 kph (Category 2). It will then start to decay rapidly as it moves  across the rugged terrain of Southeastern China on Friday evening through Saturday (Jul 29). 

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today.  Isolated to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwestern portion of the Bashi Channel (near 20.3°N 120.0°E)
• Distance 1:  190 km northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  240 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3:  295 km south-southwest of Taitung, Taiwan

• None.

• Ilocos Provinces – Ongoing until Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Ilocos Region & the western portions of Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Fujian Province as it weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon, accelerating NN…about 110 km NNW of Xiamen, China [2PM Jul 28: 25.3°N 117.5°E @ 120-150 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 947 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,315 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,200 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km outward from the center.