Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 08

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is expected to turn more to the north-northwest and will maintain its direction throughout the forecast period with decreasing wind speeds.  Later tonight, its weakening core will pass over the western portion of the Bashi Channel, and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning.  TY EGAY is forecast to accelerate further and make landfall over Fujian Province, China on Friday morning (Jul 28). 

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through tomorrow (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western coastal waters of Dalupiri Island, Cagayan (near 19.1°N 121.1°E)
• Distance 1:  45 km southwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  100 km northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  115 km north-northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• None.

• Cagayan Valley (incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group) – Ongoing until Tomorrow.
• Northern Luzon – Ongoing until Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northwestern Cagayan including Western Babuyan Island Group, Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, & Apayao – Ongoing until Tonight.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves NW to NNW…about 190 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 27: 21.0°N 119.7°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Fujian Province, China…weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it accelerates NNW-ward…about 45 km WNW of Xiamen, China [8AM Jul 28: 24.7°N 117.7°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,005 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,300 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 165 km outward from the center.