Super Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook: STY EGAY (DOKSURI) is expected to weaken slightly as it crosses the Balintang Channel beginning tonight until tomorrow morning. Its forecast track will bring the Core (Eye & Eyewall) of EGAY over the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan or along the eastern part of Balintang Channel tonight, and will start traversing the Babuyan Island Group on or before midnight. Then, at approximately 2 AM tomorrow, the eye is likely to make “islandfall” over Camiguin Island, and will be passing over or very close to the islands of Fuga, Dalupiri, and Calayan around 2 PM tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, the core will start to move away from the Babuyan Group, passing across the western part of Bashi Channel, and will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Thursday afternoon (Jul 27). 

The presence of STY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern edge of the Balintang Channel (near 18.1°N 124.0°E)
• Distance 1:  210 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  200 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  500 km northeast of Metro Manila

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands on Wednesday morning (Jul 26), between 10 PM to 10 AM ~ with Very High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan Valley – Beginning Today until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – Beginning Tonight until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan including Babuyan-Batanes Island Group,  Ilocos Norte, & Northern Apayao- beginning this Afternoon/Evening through Tomorrow Morning (Jul 26).

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Dalupiri Island in Babuyan Group, just 27 km north of Fuga Island…weakens just below Super Typhoon threshold as it turns WNW…about 30 km SW of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM Jul 26: 19.1°N 121.3°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it turns NNW towards Fujian Province, Southern China…about 200 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 27: 21.1°N 119.3°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Fujian Province…weakens to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while maintaining its NNW track…about 110 km WNW of Xiamen, China [8AM Jul 28: 25.0°N 117.2°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,090 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,060 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  260 km outward from the center.