Super Typhoon BETTY (MAWAR) Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: STY BETTY (MAWAR) is forecast to slightly weaken for the next 2 days as it encounters dry-air entrainment, increasing upper-level winds (wind shear) and cooler sea-surface temperatures along the way. The system will be downgraded from STY classification with decrease winds of about 215 kph (Cat 4) or lower. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.4°N 133.5°E)
• Distance 1:  1,035 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  1,225 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,230 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• None.

• Cagayan Valley including Ilocos Provinces – Beginning Tomorrow, Sunday Evening (May 28) until Tuesday (May 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• Coastal and Beachfront areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Over the northernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea, where fluctuating wind speeds are likely, maintains its WNW track…about 605 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM May 28: 17.3°N 128.7°E @ 250-305 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY MORNING: Weakens just below Super Typhoon threshold, but remains a strong Category 4 Typhoon…turns NW along the SW portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 400 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM May 29: 18.9°N 125.9°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it decelerates over the westernmost part of the North Philippine Sea, while well to the east of Batanes…starts to move very slowly to the NNW to N @ 05 kph…about 305 km E of Basco, Batanes [8AM May 30: 20.1°N 124.9°E @ 175-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (795 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (940 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  225 km outward from the center.