Tropical Depression OBET Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today as it moves over the Batanes Group.  It will continue moving westward, with an increased forward speed of 18 km/hr, and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by on or before noon tomorrow. 

The cyclone’s rainbands, trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds (15-55 kph) across Extreme Northern Luzon today. The risk of floods and landslides remain at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern part of Bashi Channel (near 20.4°N 123.8°E)
• Distance 1:  187 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 274 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 271 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, possible minor landfalls are likely along the Batanes Group of Islands tonight, between 6 PM to 11 PM with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Batanes & Babuyan Group, Northern Coastal Areas of Ilocos Norte & Northern Cagayan ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its Tropical Storm (TS) strength while moving West away from the Batanes-Babuyan Group…about to exit the western border of the PAR…some 182 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Oct 22: 20.6°N 120.1°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING: Strengthens further as it begins tracking WSW across the South China Sea, towards Vietnam…about 353 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 23: 19.7°N 115.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (340 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —