Typhoon KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 07

Based on current observations, there is a possibility that this typhoon may reach Category 3 strength (185-205 kph) prior to making landfall over Aurora or Northern Quezon – if its intensification process continues to take place. Residents living along the path must monitor the progress of this typhoon. Please take all necessary precautions. 

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to continue intensifying becoming a Category 2 Typhoon by tomorrow morning, and will turn westward at a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr. Its southern rainbands will begin to affect Northern Quezon, Aurora, and the northern portions of Bicol Region beginning tomorrow morning (while passing some 200 km north of Naga City, Cam Sur). By tomorrow afternoon, the core of the typhoon will pass along the northern coastal waters of Polillo Island Group, and will make landfall somewhere along Dingalan, Aurora tomorrow evening.

Meanwhile, this typhoon will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the rest of Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tomorrow through Monday (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.3°N 125.3°E)
• Distance 1: 186 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 403 km east of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3: 471 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• Somewhere along the Town of Dingalan (Aurora) – between 7 to 9 PM tonight with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – beginning 2PM today to 2AM tomorrow (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Aurora & Northern Part of Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands – beginning 2PM today.
• Nueva Ecija – beginning 8PM tonight.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 4 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon while moving westward near the coastal waters of Northern Bicol, approaching the coastal waters of Polillo Island Group,  Northern Quezon & Aurora…about 121 km N of Siruma, CamSur [8AM Sept 25: 15.1°N 123.5°E @ 160 kph]. Forecast Confidence:  HIGH 
• SUNDAY EVENING: Making landfall along Dingalan, Aurora while moving WNW-ward…weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon…about 50 km S of Baler, Aurora [8PM Sept 25: 15.3°N 121.7°E @ 140 kph]. Later on, the core is forecast to cross Central Luzon (passing along the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and Northern Zambales).  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM 
• MONDAY EVENING: Regains Typhoon Classification while moving westward across the West Philippine Sea. Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 396 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Sept 26: 15.8°N 116.3°E @ 120 kph].   Forecast Confidence: LOW
• TUESDAY EVENING: Accelerates westward across the South China Sea, approaching the coastal waters of Vietnam, regains Category 2 strength…about 858 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Sept 27: 15.3°N 110.9°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (505 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  45 km outward from the center