Severe Tropical Storm KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: TS KARDING is forecast to become a Typhoon later today, and will turn westward at a decreased forward speed of 21 km/hr. Its outer rainbands will start to affect Northern Quezon, Aurora, and the northern portions of Bicol Region beginning early tomorrow morning. 

Meanwhile, this storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tomorrow through Monday (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.1°N 127.5°E)
• Distance 1: 425 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 553 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 582 km east of Casiguran, Aurora

• Somewhere along the East Coast of Southern Aurora – between 4 to 6 PM tomorrow, Sunday (Sept 25) with High Strike Probability of 80 to >90%.

• Central Luzon & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – beginning 2AM tomorrow to 2AM Monday, (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Aurora & Northern Part of Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands – beginning 2PM to 8PM tomorrow.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a 140 kph (Cat 1) Typhoon while moving westward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the coastal waters of Northern Quezon & Aurora…about 152 km NNE of Daet, Camarines Norte [8AM Sept 25: 15.4°N 123.4°E @ 140 kph].  Later on, the eye is forecast to make landfall over Southern Aurora, near Baler late in the afternoon. Then in the evening it will cross Central Luzon (passing along Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and Northern Zambales).  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM 
• SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into an STS as it traverses Central Luzon…passing over Nueva Ecija…about 24 km N of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija [8PM Sept 25: 15.7°N 121.0°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• MONDAY MORNING: Regains Typhoon Classification as it moves westward across the West Philippine Sea, passing over Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal. Expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the afternoon…about 211 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 26: 15.6°N 118.1°E @ 120 kph].   Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• TUESDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it accelerates westward across the South China Sea in the general direction of Vietnam, becomes a Category 2 Typhoon…about 772 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 27: 15.5°N 112.8°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (505 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center