Severe Tropical Storm SIONY (ATSANI) Advisory No. 07

24-hr Outlook: STS SIONY (ATSANI) is forecast to maintain its westerly track with a slight bend to the north at a forward speed of 19 km/hr, and could become a minimal Typhoon (Category 1) on or before it passes the Batanes Group by tomorrow morning or noontime.  After passing over the said island group, this storm is expected to move out of the norhwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Friday evening.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea  (near 20.3°N 124.9°E)
• Distance 1: 306 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 348 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 407 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

• None

• BATANES & BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP – beginning Friday Early Morning (Nov 06).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• BATANES – beginning Friday Early Morning (1 AM) until Early Afternoon (2 PM) [Nov 06].

• Coastal Waters of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today through Friday.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a minimal Typhoon (Category 1) after traversing the Batanes Group…moving across the western part of he Bashi Channel…about 87 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Nov 06: 21.0°N 121.0°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  
• SATURDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it begins to move on a southwesterly track while over the South China Sea, weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm…about 452 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM Nov 07: 21.3°N 117.5°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accum. (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (510 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (555 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center