Tropical Storm SIONY (ATSANI) Advisory No. 04

, 2020 Season, STS Siony

TROPICAL STORM SIONY (ATSANI) ADVISORY NO. 04

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 04 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 04 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook Tropical Storm SIONY (ATSANI) intensifying as it continues to linger over the North Philippine Sea due to very weak or lack of steering flow within the area, but will finally get one – pushing it westward in the general direction of Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands within the next two (2) days.

24-hr Outlook: TS SIONY (ATSANI) is forecast to begin moving west to west-southwestward at an increased forward speed of 14 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow morning (Nov 05).
Where is SIONY (ATSANI)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 04…0300 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-southern portion of the North Philippine Sea  (near 20.1°N 129.3°E)
  • Distance 1: 762 km east of Basco, Batanes
  • Distance 2: 771 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
  • Distance 3: 827 km east-northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 03 kph (Quasi-Stationary), towards North Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • THURSDAY MORNING: Starts to track and accelerate WSW to Westward, becomes an STS…about 478 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Nov 05: 19.4°N 126.6°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

  • FRIDAY MORNING: Strenghens further as it passes very near Batanes while moving on a WNW track…about 79 km WSW of Basco, Batanes [8AM Nov 06: 19.2°N 123.4°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

  • SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies at near-Typhoon strength as it moves across the northern part of the South China Sea (outside of PAR)…about 327 km ESE of Hong Kong, China  [8AM Nov 07: 21.0°N 116.9°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (575 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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