Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 09

*This tropical cyclone is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon ROSING (ANGELA) which devastated the Bicol Region, Central & Southern Luzon in November 02-03, 1995. Please take full preparations & precautions.

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further and is expected to move westward with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes on or after sunrise this morning, and shall do another landfall over Partido District in Camarines Sur on or before noontime today. It will then cross North-Central Camarines Sur between 12 to 4 PM, and across Southern Quezon tonight. By early Monday morning, ROLLY will traverse Laguna-Metro Manila Area, before moving out into the West Philippine Sea.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the mid-western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.9°N 125.8°E)
• Distance 1: 163 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 252 km east of Tigaon, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 283 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1: Over Catanduanes, between 6 to 8 AM today – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.
• Landfall 2: Over Sagñay-Tigaon Area, Camarines Sur (Partido), between 10 to 11 AM today – with High Strike Probability of 90-95%.

• Bicol Region – Today
• CaLaBaRZon, Marinduque, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning this afternoon

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Northern Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands – Today
• Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, NCR, Parts of Central Luzon – beginning this afternoon

• Coastal Areas, Inland Lakes, & Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – Today.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Gumaca-Pitogo Area, Southern Quezon…weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon…about 49 km ESE of Tayabas City, Quezon [8PM Nov 01: 13.9°N 122.1°E @ 175 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
• MONDAY EVENING: Over Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon…about 270 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [8PM Nov 02: 15.4°N 117.6°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (570 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (700 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center