Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 06

The potential landfall area will be tomorrow morning, November 01, along the northern tip of Catanduanes and the Northern Portions of Camarines Provinces  with a high strike probability of 80-90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken slightly as it maintains its west-southwestward movement with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr approaching the northern coast of Catanduanes with winds of 260 km/hr by early tomorrow morning. 

• Location: Along the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 129.3°E)
• Distance 1: 579 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 670 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 693 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Siruma-Daet Area (Northern Camarines Provinces), between 8 to 10 AM Sunday, Nov 01 – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

• Bicol Region – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces – beginning early Sunday morning (Nov 01)

• Coastal & Inland Lakes, Bays of Bicol Region & Quezon – beginning tonight

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it continues to move west-southwestward approaching the Northern Coastal Areas of Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces…about 82 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 01: 14.2°N 124.9°E @ 260 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerging over the West Philippine Sea or near the west coast of Zambales…downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon after traversing Quezon, NCR, and Bataan-Subic Bay Area…about 97 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales  [2AM Nov 02: 15.0°N 119.4°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves west towards Vietnam…about 677 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Nov 03: 14.9°N 113.8°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 904 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (495 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center