Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 09

24-hr Outlook: STS PAENG is forecast to resume moving west-northwest later tonight at a forward speed of 17 km/hr,  and will be in the vicinity of Malolos, Bulacan by 8 PM tonight. By 8 AM tomorrow morning, Paeng will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, passing very close to the Scarborough Shoal, and is likely to re-intensify.

The storm’s large rainbands and trough will continue to bring isolated to occasional rains & thunderstorms with gusty winds (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming more frequent and stormy across Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, & Sulu Archipelago today.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Manila-San Juan City  (near 14.6°N 121.0°E)
• Distance 1:  10 km of south-southwest of Quezon City
• Distance 2: 10 km south of Valenzuela City
• Distance 3: 35 km southeast of Malolos, Bulacan

• None.

• Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Luzon, Visayas.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• NCR, Bulacan, Zambales  ~ Today.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of CaLaBaRZon, Bicol Region, Quezon Province, & Western Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TONIGHT: In the vicinity of Malolos, Bulacan as it WNW towards Southern Zambales, and out into the West Philippine Sea. Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 45 km SSE of Manila [8PM Oct 29: 14.8°N 120.8°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies back to an STS while over the West Philippine Sea while passing near Scarborough Shoal. Turns NNW…about 210 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 30: 15.2°N 118.3°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while over the South China Sea, intensifies into a Typhoon…about 369 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 31: 17.2°N 116.7°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,240 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,300 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  85 km outward from the center