Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 07

As of 2:00 AM today, our Typhoon2000 Automated Weather Station based in Naga City has reported barometric readings of 989.0 hPa, which continues to fall rapidly at a rate of -6.0 for the past 15 minutes, and a wind gust of 58 kph blowing from North (12:27 AM) .  

24-hr Outlook: STS PAENG is forecast to continue moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr, and will continue to intensify today – as it traverses the low-level terrain of Northern Bicol Region. It is therefore expected to be over Sipocot, Cam Sur between 6 to 8 AM this morning or about 30 km NW of Naga City. By 8 PM tonight, the center of Paeng will be in the vicinity of Tanay, Rizal as it approaches Metro Manila.

The storm’s rainbands and trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring isolated to occasional rains & thunderstorms with gusty winds (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming more frequent and stormy across Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, & Sulu Archipelago tonight & tomorrow.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Southern Catanduanes [Landfall] (near 13.6°N 124.2°E)
• Distance 1:  45 km of east-southeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
• Distance 2: 110 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 145 km east-southeast of Daet, Camarines Norte

• Landfall 1:  Over Catanduanes on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 12 to 1 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%. —> Now Happening.
• Landfall 2:  Over Partido District (Cam Sur)  on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 1 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 3:  Over Mauban-Infanta (Quezon) on Saturday evening (Oct 29), between 6 to 7 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region & Visayas ~ Today.
• Rest of Luzon ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Catanduanes & Northern Camarines Provinces ~ This Morning.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Quezon Province.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Sipocot (Cam Sur) as it moves WNW across Northern Bicol Region…about 30 km NW of Naga City, Cam Sur [8AM Oct 29: 13.8°N 123.0°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Tanay, Rizal…strengthens slightly as it crosses Rizal…approaching NCR…about 30 km E of Antipolo City, Rizal [8PM Oct 29: 14.6°N 121.4°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EVENING: Slows down as it moves out into the West Philippine Sea, weakens slightly as it turns NNW…about 205 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 30: 15.8°N 118.1°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• MONDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the South China Sea, re-intensifies back to STS…about 322 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM Oct 31: 18.5°N 117.5°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,280 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  30 km outward from the center