Super Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: STY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to weaken further while moving westward at 26 kph, and will make more major landfalls across Bohol (tonight), Cebu (late tonight or midnight), Negros (early tomorrow morning) and will be over the Sulu Sea by mid-morning tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, Odette will be approaching eastern coast of Northern Palawan, with decreasing wind speeds of 185 kph (Category 3).

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – today until tomorrow (Dec 17).

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Sugod Bay, Southern Leyte (near 10.0°N 125.1°E)
• Distance 1: 34 km east-southeast of Maasin City, Leyte
• Distance 2: 139 km east-southeast of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
• Distance 3: 124 km east-southeast of Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu

• Landfall 03:  Over Maasin, Leyte Area between 5 to 7 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 04:  Over Bohol between 7 to 10 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 05:  Over Southern-Central Cebu Area, between 11 PM Today to 12 AM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 06:  Over Central-Southern Negros Area, between 12 to 4 AM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 07:  Over Northern Palawan, between 3 to 6 PM Tomorrow, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – Today until Tomorrow Evening.
• Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning tomorrow until Saturday Morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Agusan Del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin Island, Surigao Provinces, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Leyte – tonight.
• Bohol, Cebu, Negros, & Southern Panay – tonight until tomorrow morning (Dec 17).
• Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning tomorrow morning until early evening.
• Northern Palawan – beginning tomorrow afternoon until early Saturday morning (Dec 18).

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental, weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon…about 11 km SSE of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental [2AM Dec 17: 10.0°N 122.9°E @ 205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it approaches Northern Palawan…about 152 km ENE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 120.1°E @ 185 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea, weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves WNW…about 197 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.8°N 117.2°E @ 175 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), re-intensifies back to Category 3…about 482 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.6°N 114.7°E @ 195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens back to Category 2 as it nears the eastern coast of Vietnam, starts to recurve…about 938 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 13.8°N 111.1°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 915 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (750 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 165 km outward from the center