Typhoon ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TY ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to move WNW at 22 kph across the northwesternmost portion of the South Philippine Sea, and will make landfall to Siargao-Dinagat Islands by late tomorrow afternoon.  Its forecasted wind speed will be about 165 kph (Category 2 Typhoon).

The presence of this typhoon will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across the Eastern Sections of Northern & Central Luzon including CaLaBaRZon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, & Marinduque – beginning tomorrow through Friday (Dec 17).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.2°N 130.4°E)
• Distance 1: 539 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
• Distance 2: 483 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 619 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte

• Landfall 01:  Over Siargao-Dinagat Islands, between 3 to 5 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. 
• Landfall 02:  Over Southern Leyte, between 6 to 9 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 03:  Over Bohol between 10 PM Tomorrow to 12 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 04:  Over Central Cebu, between 1 to 3 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 05:  Over Central Negros, between 4 to 6 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 06:  Over Northern Palawan, between 8 to 10 PM  Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17).
• Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Afternoon (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Surigao Del Norte, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Tip of Samar, Leyte – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon until Evening (Dec 16).
• Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Central & Southern Panay – beginning Late Tomorrow Evening until Fri Noon (Dec 17).
• Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning Friday Morning until Evening (Dec 17).
• Northern Palawan including Calamian Group – beginning Friday Afternoon (Dec 17) until Early Saturday Morning (Dec 18).

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa.

+Waves of 3-5 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coastal areas of Siargao Island as it intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon…about 94 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte [2PM Dec 16: 10.1°N 126.3°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Central Cebu, weakens to Category 1 Typhoon…about 31 km SW of Talisay City, Cebu [2AM Dec 17: 10.1°N 123.6°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Northern Part of Sulu Archipelago, re-intensifies back to Category 2…about 51 km SSE of Cuyo Island, Palawan [2PM Dec 17: 10.4°N 121.1°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), strengthens further…373 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.6°N 115.8°E @ 175 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (765 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km outward from the center