Tropical Depression OBET Final Advisory

*This is the Final Advisory on this Tropical Cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by early tomorrow morning, and will turn west-southwest across the South China Sea, with a forward speed of 21 km/hr. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western edge of the Bashi Channel (near 20.2°N 120.0°E)
• Distance 1:  181 km west-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 202 km west-southwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3: 231 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• None. 

• None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as a TS as it moves WSW across the South China Sea…some 288 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 23: 19.7°N 115.8°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken while over the South China Sea, maintains its WSW track, towards Central Vietnam…about 594 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 24: 17.6°N 111.6°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (435 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —