Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 26 km/hr, and could still intensify slightly. The core of STS MARING is expected to move out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this morning, between 9-11 AM. 

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte (near 18.9°N 120.9°E)
• Distance 1: 36 km north-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 2: 84 km northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3: 487 km north of Metro Manila

• None

• Northern Luzon & Portions of Central Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan, Ilocos Norte – Today.

• Ilocos Norte, Northern Cagayan, & Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EVENING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it moves westward across the northern part of the South China Sea (outside of PAR)…about 501 km W of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Oct 12: 18.9°N 115.9°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Hainan Island, China as it weakens slightly while maintaining its westerly track…about 568 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 13: 18.9°N 110.1°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• THURSDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Vinh, Northern Vietnam…weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 280 km S of Hanoi, Vienam [8PM Oct 14: 18.5°N 105.7°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,920 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,700 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.