Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to enter the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel tonight and will maintain its northwesterly track as it moves across the Eastern Babuyan Islands by early tomorrow morning. The core (eye & eyewall) of this catastrophic super typhoon will pass over or very close to Basco, Batanes between 6 to 10 AM tomorrow morning, and along Itbayat, Batanes between 12 to 4 PM. Damaging catastrophic winds with heavy to extreme rainfall and high storm surge are expected along these islands. STY KIKO is expected to weaken slightly by tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, just east of Northern Cagayan (near 18.3°N 123.2°E)
• Distance 1: 108 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 211 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 274 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes

• Possible “Islandfall” is expected along BATAN ISLAND (Batanes) between 6 to 10 AM tomorrow morning (Sept 11) – if it moves a little bit to the right of the forecast track. The Strike Probability remains High at >90%.

• Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning Tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Coastal Areas of Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – beginning late Tonight.

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – Today until Saturday Evening. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Along the northern part of the Batanes Group, as it traverses the Bashi Channel with decreased wind strength while turning North…about 62 km WNW of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 11: 20.8°N 121.5°E @ 230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns north to NNE as it moves along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 345 km N of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 12: 23.6°N 122.3°E @ 195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea while weakening to a Category 2 TY…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 292 km SE of Shanghai, China [2PM Sept 13: 29.2°N 123.4°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 380 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 916 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (510 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center