Tropical Storm KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TS KARDING is forecast to intensify further, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today, and into a Typhoon by early tomorrow morning while moving west to west-southwest at an accelerated forward speed of 24 km/hr. Due to the smaller size of this system, its outer rainbands will start to affect the eastern coastal areas of Northern Quezon and Aurora beginning tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, this storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tomorrow through Monday (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.7°N 128.8°E)
• Distance 1: 579 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 683 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 721 km east of Casiguran, Aurora

• Somewhere along the East Coast of Aurora – between 2 to 4 PM Sunday (Sept 25) with High Strike Probability of 80 to >90%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon while maintaining its west-southwest to westerly track across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 196 km N of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Sept 25: 15.8°N 124.1°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall over Northern Aurora…about 31 km SW of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM Sept 25: 16.0°N 121.9°E @ 120 kph]. Later on, the center is forecast to traverse the southern part of Northern Luzon late in the afternoon through the evening (passing along Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Northern tip of Nueva Ecija, and Pangasinan).  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an STS as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, while moving westward, expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the afternoon…about 150 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 26: 16.4°N 118.6°E @ 100 kph].   Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it accelerates westward across the South China Sea in the general direction of Vietnam…about 731 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 27: 16.0°N 112.5°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (410 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (385 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —