Tropical Storm KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 03

*NORU ~ is the international name which means Roe Deer (contributed by RO Korea). 

24-hr Outlook: TS KARDING is forecast to intensify further, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow afternoon while moving west-southwest at an accelerated forward speed of 21 km/hr. This storm remains over the open waters of the Philippine Sea with still no direct effects through tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.8°N 131.0°E)
• Distance 1: 934 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 918 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 984 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

• Somewhere along Eastern Isabela & Northern Aurora – between 2 to 4 PM Sunday (Sept 25) with High Strike Probability of 60-70%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while accelerating west-southwestward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 417 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Sept 24: 16.6°N 127.0°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies at near-Typhoon strength, starts to make landfall over Northern Aurora as it turns westward…about 17 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM Sept 25: 16.3°N 122.2°E @ 110 kph]. Later on, the center is forecast to traverse the southern part of Northern Luzon late in the afternoon through the evening (passing along Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and La Union).  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it becomes a Typhoon while accelerating rapidly westward across the West Philippine Sea…about 421 km West of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 26: 16.8°N 116.1°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —