Typhoon JULIAN (KRATHON) Advisory No. 06

48-hr Outlook: Typhoon JULIAN is expected to continue on a westerly track over the next 24 hours as it moves along the western part of the Bashi Channel. It may intensify to near-super typhoon strength tonight. By Wednesday morning (Oct 2), Julian is forecast to make a sharp northerly turn toward southern Taiwan, with a possible landfall near Kaohsiung City by Wednesday evening. The storm’s southern inner rainbands will bring cloudy skies, occasional rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the Ilocos and Cagayan Valley regions, as well as northern parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), from today through Tuesday.

Additionally, due to the typhoon’s expanding circulation, the western sections of Central Luzon will also experience outer rainbands, with passing thunderstorms and strong winds of up to 40 km/h expected today.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the western coastal waters of Sabtang Island, Batanes (near 20.3°N 121.7°E)
• Distance 1:  35 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  110 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  260 km north-northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte

• Currently happening over Batanes Group ~ with High Strike Probability of 100%.

• Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes, La Union, Ilocos Provinces, Kalinga, Apayao, Western CAR ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of >100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Today.

• Across the coastal and beachfront areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  or at the PDF version of the latest PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Begins to turn northward while along the western edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…reaches its peak intensity…about 160 km W of Itbayat, Batanes  [8AM Oct 01: 20.6°N 120.3°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Loses strength, weakens to Category 3 as it approaches Southern Taiwan…accelerating NNE…about 95 km S of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan  [8AM Oct 02: 21.8°N 120.2°E @ 205-250 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM.
• THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 1 typhoon as it exits the northern coast of Taiwan, as it accelerates towards the NE…about 5 km SE of Taipei City, Taiwan  [8AM Oct 03: 25.0°N 121.6°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  940 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Large (1,010 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  135 km outward from the center.